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ECB Preview - December 2020: Focus On Duration Over Size

ECB Preview - December 2020

Recalibration: Focus On Duration Over Size

  • A December stimulus package is a foregone conclusion after the ECB signalled at the October meeting that it would recalibrate its instruments. Given the continued emphasis on the primacy of PEPP and the TLTROs during the Covid crisis, both will be expanded and adjusted at this week's meeting.
  • GC members have recently argued the importance of maintaining favourable financing conditions and have stressed that the focus should be on the duration of policy support rather than the headline size of the stimulus programme.
  • A EUR500bn expansion to the PEPP envelope and extension of net purchases by six-months to end-2021, additional TLTROs and an extension of the most preferential funding rate are the baseline scenario. Further deposit rate cuts are off the cards, but an adjustment to the tiering multiplier is possible

For the full publication, please see:

ECB Preview December 2020.pdf

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