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ECB Professional Forecasters' Price Outlook Steady

ECB

From our Policy Team on the ECB's latest SPF:

  • Financial economists and analysts see both headline and core eurozone inflation little changed in Q2 from their forecasts in the previous quarter
  • Respondents expect headline inflation to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in both 2025 and 2026.
  • They saw labour market tightness and wage growth as high, but these were generally "expected to moderate and underpin the return of both headline and core inflation to 2.0%".
  • Longer-term HICP inflation expectations (for 2028) were unchanged at 2.0%.


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