ECB Survey Suggests Consumers Not Perceiving Credit Crunch

Apart from the closely watched inflation expectations component (which showed a dovish drop once again), June's ECB Consumer Expectations Survey suggested no deterioration in consumer sentiment vs May, with the economic growth outlook steadying. Perhaps more importantly from the ECB's perspective, consumer expectations for credit conditions have eased slightly from this year's peak, despite signs of tightening in ECB lending surveys.

• Economic Growth: Econ growth expectations for the next 12 months were slightly less negative on the mean measure (-0.6% vs -0.7% in May) but the median was flat at zero once again. Mean growth expectations were higher in Italy, Spain, France, and Belgium, but weaker in Germany and the Netherlands.
• Labour Market: Expected unemployment rates were steady vs June at 11% for the mean and 8% median.
• Credit: The survey suggested more limited passthrough of monetary tightening to consumers in the past couple of months, with expectations for access to credit over the next 12 months unchanged, and perceived (past) access to credit easing for a 2nd consecutive month (to the net "easiest" since Feb). Overall perceptions of credit conditions looked tight in March and April, but have eased off.
• Housing: House price expectations stabilized at a 2-year low (seen rising 2.1% over the coming 12 months), though expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead dipped 0.1pp to 5.0%.