EM LATAM CREDIT: Ecuador Elections: Republic of Ecuador (ECUA; Caa3/B-neg/CCC+)
“Daniel Noboa and Luisa González will go to a second round for the presidential elections in Ecuador” – El Tiempo
Negative for Spreads
• ECUA 2030s reached as high as $78.50 these past few days, climbing from $70.25 at year end, as the market anticipated a Naboa first round win only to be disappointed yesterday with the result being a virtual tie. Bonds gapped lower this morning and are settling with a $70 handle again as we await the April 13 runoff. The 2030 bonds have a USD370mn mandatory amortization coming January 2026.
• With 92% of the vote counted, according to El Tiempo, incumbent Daniel Noboa received 44.31% of the vote while in second place Luisa Gonzalez got 43.83%.
• The indigenous candidate Leonidas Iza received 4.75% of the vote while environmental activist Andrea Gonzalez got 2.81%. Iza has positioned himself as the people’s candidate promoting the improvement in education, health and employment against Noboa and the “elites”, according to an interview with Iza on February 8th conducted by Jacobin América Latina. Those votes may find their way towards Gonzalez in the runoff election.
ECUA 6.9% 2030, $70.50, -7.83
link to articles:
https://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/correismo-y-anticorreismo-la-polarizacion-que-lleva-a-una-segunda-vuelta-electoral-en-ecuador-3425379
https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article8846