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US OUTLOOK/OPINION
The seasonal adjustment in education jobs going into the start of the school year in Sept will undoubtedly be among the most debated aspects of today's slightly disappointing jobs report.
- That's in part because the BLS release admits that "recent employment changes are challenging to interpret, as pandemic-related staffing fluctuations in public and private education have distorted the normal seasonal hiring and layoff patterns."
- That's probably referring to school hiring a little earlier/later which meant that the "usual" amount of hiring in Sept was a little lower (with some Covid / reopening factors also likely in the mix).
- Looking at the report, state + local government education jobs declined 161k in Sept on a seas adj basis, but gained 1.03mn on a non-seas adj basis. That 161k accounted for more than 100% of the entire gov't drag of 123k jobs on the headline NFP figure, so without it we might have seen a very different interpretation of today's report.
- Indeed, it may be seen as yet another "transitory" development in the economy, given that the annual beginning of the school year is seen as a one-off factor.
Source: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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