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EGB/Gilt: PEPP Debate Heating Up

BOND SUMMARY

EGBs have continued to broadly weaken this morning following yesterday's strong inflation reading for the euro area.

  • The ECB's Stournaras suggested that the inflation surge will be temporary and that the GC should be cautious. This contrasts with yesterday's relatively hawkish comments from Klaas Knot.
  • German retail sales for July missed by a wide margin (-0.3% Y/Y vs 3.6% survey), while UK property prices continued to soar in August (11.0% Y/Y vs 8.6% survey). Elsewhere, Italian and Spanish manufacturing PMI data for August came in a touch higher than expected.
  • Supply this morning came from the UK (Gilt, GBP2.5bn) and Germany (Bobl, EUR3.296bn). In addition the regular auctions, Germany has received EUR18bn in bids for a new Aug-52 bund via syndication, while Greece has opened booked on a dual tranche of 5Y and 30Y bonds (combined book size last seen around EUR14bn).
  • The bund curve is marginally steeper this morning with the 2s30s spread 2bp wider.
  • It is a similar story for OATs with the curve 2bp steeper.
  • BTPs have lacked direction and now trade near yesterday's close.

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