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EGB/Gilt: UK Budget In The Spotlight

BOND SUMMARY
EGBs/Gilts trade weaker early into the session, alongside a strong start for equities.
  • Gilts are leading the sell-off so far. Cash yields are 3-4bp lower with marginal bear steepening of the curve.
  • Focus today will be on the UK budget with Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak repeatedly warning of the need to 'level' with the people about the health of the public finances and the need to restore fiscal stability. Given the Conservative's pre-election pledge to effectively ring fence certain taxes such as VAT and income tax, there are few immediate levels to pull. Markets will be paying particular attention to possible corporation tax adjustments and the likely extension of different Covid support schemes.
  • Bunds have traded weaker since the open are now marginally below yesterday's close.
  • It is a similar story for OATs, which trade in line with bunds and with the curve close to flat overall.
  • BTPs have firmed with cash yields 1bp below yesterday's close and spreads over bunds narrowing.
  • The Spanish services and composite PMI prints for February were a touch better than expected (43.1 vs 43.0 survey and 45.1 vs 45.0 survey, respectively).
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