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EGB Supply for W/C Feb 1: Upcoming

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

Portugal is due to hold a 30-year syndication (likely today) while Spain and France will hold auctions tomorrow. Belgium could also potentially sell again via its ORI operation on Friday. We estimate total gross issuance of E36.7bln from the operations announced so far.

  • Portugal has released a mandate for a new 30-year OT, maturing April 2052. We expect the transaction to take place today with a transaction size of E1.5-3.0bln (and a risk of a size up to E4.0bln if demand is super strong).
  • Tomorrow, Spain looks to sell E5-6bln of conventionals and E250-750mln of linkers. On offer will be the 0% May-24 Bono, the 0% Jan-26 Bono the 0.10% Apr-31 Obli and the 0.70% Nov-30 ObliEi.
  • Also tomorrow, France looks to sell E10-11bln of LT OATS: the 0% Nov-30 OAT, the 1.25% May-36 OAT, the 1.75% Jun-39 OAT and the 0.75% May-52 OAT will all be on offer.
  • Finally, Friday sees a provisional date for Belgium to use its ORI facility.
CASH FLOWS: There are E19.9bln of redemptions due (largely due to E19.4bln of the 0.05% Jan-21 Bono maturing). There are also heavy coupon payments of E11.4bln (including Spain E5.8bln and Italy E4.4bln). Together with gross issuance of E36.7bln, net cash flows are estimated to be E5.4bln (down significantly from the E41.7bln last week).
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