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EGB Supply - W/C 22 January, 2024 (2/2)

EUROZONE ISSUANCE
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the on-the-run 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E500mln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341).
  • Also on Wednesday, Portugal will look to sell a combined E1.5-1.75bln of 5/20-year OTs: the on-the-run 5-year 2.125% Oct-28 OT (ISIN: PTOTEVOE0018), the on-the-run 20-year 1.15% Apr-42 OT (ISIN: PTOTEPOE0032) and the off-the-run 20-year 4.10% Feb-45 OT (ISIN: PTOTEBOE0020).
  • On Thursday, Italy will come to the market for a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. We look for a reopening of the 3.60% Sep-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005557084) for up to E3.0-3.5bln. We don’t have a strong view on the BTPei on offer. Details will be announced later today.
  • Greece will potentially hold a syndication this week, with a launch of a new 10-year GGB most likely. Issue sizes over past few years have generally been E3.0-3.5bln, but given the strong demand at other EGB syndications recently, we see a chance that this deal is potentially upsized.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees redemptions of E1.0bln (from Lithuania and Cyprus) and coupon payments of E0.5bln (E0.2bln Austrian). This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated positive E23.5bln, up from E7.5bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix see the full PDF here.

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