EGB Supply - W/C 8 January, 2024 (1/3)

The EFSF, the EU, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Italy all look to hold auctions in the week ahead while we pencil in syndications from Belgium, Ireland, Italy and Spain. This leaves estimated gross issuance for the week at E54.2bln, up from E28.9bln this week.

• The EFSF has sent an RFP to banks regarding an “upcoming” issue. Historically this transaction normally takes place on the Monday and we pencil in 8 January. The past 3 years have seen dual-tranche syndications with increasing sizes. In 2021 E5.0bln across 10/30-years, in 2022 E5.5bln across 8/31-years, in 2023 E6.0bln across 3/10-years. MNI would expect another dual-tranche transaction and notes that there are two EFSF bonds both with E4.0bln outstanding due to mature in Q1-24 so expect there are upside risks to the E5-6bln seen over the past few years.
• The EU will look to hold a bond auction on Monday, with up to E2.5bln of the 5-year 3.125% Dec-28 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EN5) on offer alongside up to E2.5bln of the 10-year 3.25% Jul-34 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D41).