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EGBS: Rally Through Morning, August HICP Ends Up In Line With Initial Consensus

EGBS

Major EGB futures have rallied through the morning, with participants seemingly re-assessing yesterday afternoon’s US data/crude-induced selloff. 

  • Eurozone flash headline and core inflation was in line with initial consensus at 2.2% Y/Y and 2.8% Y/Y respectively, after this morning’s higher-than-expected French/Dutch data reduced hopes for a downward surprise following yesterday’s Spanish/German outturns.
  • In particular, EZ services inflation accelerated to 4.2% Y/Y (vs 4.0% prior), underscoring cautious commentary from ECB Schnabel, who advocated for a gradual policy easing cycle in a speech today.
  • Bund futures are +22 ticks today at 134.10, though remain well-short of yesterday’s high at 134.49.
  • The German cash curve has lightly bull flattened, but remains steeper on the week after yesterday’s price action.
  • The recovery in European equities from overnight lows has allowed 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds to narrow away from opening wides, leaving spreads little changed on the day.
  • Broader focus now turns to the US monthly PCE report.
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