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EGBS: /STIR: OATs Pierce Round Number Resistance, Euribor Futures At YTD Highs

EGBS
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OAT futures have pierced round-number resistance at 128.00, exposing the Sep 17 high at 128.14. There has been a step-up in volumes since the top of the hour, as NY participants filter in and assess this morning’s rally.

  • PM Barnier is scheduled to address Parliament at 1400BST/1500CET today, and is expected to announce measures to tighten France’s fiscal stance (see the above post for more colour).
  • Le Parisien reported yesterday that Barnier will look to announce E15-18bln of additional taxes.
  • The 10-year OAT/Bund spread is now 4.5bps tighter today, below 75bps for the first time in two weeks.
  • BTP futures have extended higher alongside OATs, now through the 3.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing at 122.22, currently +95 ticks today at 122.42. The BTP/Bund spread has tightened 3bps today to 130bps at typing.
  • In EUR STIRs, Euribor futures have registered fresh YTD highs through the reds, greens and blues, likely providing additional support to BTPs and OATs.
  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price 22bps of easing through the October meeting, with 151bps of cuts now priced through the June 2025 meeting.

 

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OAT futures have pierced round-number resistance at 128.00, exposing the Sep 17 high at 128.14. There has been a step-up in volumes since the top of the hour, as NY participants filter in and assess this morning’s rally.

  • PM Barnier is scheduled to address Parliament at 1400BST/1500CET today, and is expected to announce measures to tighten France’s fiscal stance (see the above post for more colour).
  • Le Parisien reported yesterday that Barnier will look to announce E15-18bln of additional taxes.
  • The 10-year OAT/Bund spread is now 4.5bps tighter today, below 75bps for the first time in two weeks.
  • BTP futures have extended higher alongside OATs, now through the 3.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing at 122.22, currently +95 ticks today at 122.42. The BTP/Bund spread has tightened 3bps today to 130bps at typing.
  • In EUR STIRs, Euribor futures have registered fresh YTD highs through the reds, greens and blues, likely providing additional support to BTPs and OATs.
  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price 22bps of easing through the October meeting, with 151bps of cuts now priced through the June 2025 meeting.

 

Keep reading...Show less