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EGBS: Strong Eurozone Q1 Wage Data Weighs On EGBs; NFP In Focus

EGBS

Core/semi-core EGBs were pressured after Eurozone Q1 compensation per employee accelerated in Q1.

  • The 5.1% Y/Y figure exceeded Eurosystem staff’s latest forecasts of 5.0% and Q4’s 4.7% reading. See our earlier post for more colour there.
  • Prior to that release, Bund, OAT and BTP futures had traded in a tight range as markets await today’s US labour market data at 1330BST.
  • ECB speakers have not been market moving, re-iterating yesterday’s guidance that the Bank is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
  • Bund futures are -27 at 130.71, though remain firmer this week. The latest recovery appears to be a correction for now, with bulls needing to breach 131.73, the 50-day EMA, to signal scope for a stronger recovery.
  • German and French cash yields are 2 to 3bps higher, while 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are wider with European equities on the defensive.
  • The aforementioned US labour market report remains today’s focus.
     
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