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Free AccessEGBS: Weaker Following Above-Consensus Core HICP Reading
EGBs are weaker after Eurozone core inflation printed two tenths above consensus in the May flash release.
- Weakness was already seen ahead of that release as national readings pointed to upside risks in the eurozone-wide print.
- The data suggests that underlying inflation pressures remain persistent and means the ECB may need to accompany its well-signalled 25bps cut with hawkish guidance at next week’s meeting.
- Bunds are -25 ticks at 128.93, after reaching an intraday low of 128.74 post-data.
- German and French cash yields are 2 to 4.5bps higher today, with 5s leading the sell-off.
- 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds biased slightly tighter.
- ECB-dated OIS briefly probed last week’s hawkish extreme before retracing slightly, currently showing 57bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024.
- The strip shows very slim odds of back-to-back ECB cuts over the next couple of meetings.
- Focus now turns to the US, where April PCE data headlines.
- EGB month-end extensions are not seen as meaningful but may provide some modest background support later in the day.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.