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EIA Forecast US Gas at 6$/mmbtu in Q1 and Higher Production in 2023

NATURAL GAS

EIA expect natural gas prices to increase from November levels because of both higher winter natural gas demand and rising LNG exports according to the December Short-Term Energy Outlook released yesterday.

  • They forecast for the Henry Hub spot price average of more than 6$/mmbtu in 1Q23, up from November’s monthly average of about 5.50$/mmbtu.
  • The expect a 0.7% increase in US natural gas production in 2023 to 100.4bcf/d due to an earlier lifting of pipeline capacity constraints from the Permian Basin.
  • The possibility of high price volatility remains but gas prices are expected to decline after January due to the rising US production, helping storage levels move closer to the previous five-year average.
  • They expect LNG exports will reach 12.7bcf/d by the end of 2023 with Freeport LNG ramping up utilization in the coming months and reaching full capacity by March 2023.

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