EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Another Crude Build Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to build by 1.43mbbls for the week ending April 12, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks last week built more than expected with an increase on the Gulf Coast driven by a large decline in exports on the week while refinery runs also showed an unexpected drop. US Production has held steady at 13.1mbpd since early March. The US drilled but uncomplete (DUC) well count rose for the first time in a year according to the latest EIA drilling report with shale explorers drilling wells faster than fracking them suggesting that US oil-production growth is slowing. Refinery runs fell by 0.3% counter to an expected increase of 0.5% driven by a big drop in rates in the Midwest but rates rose to 91.4% in the Gulf Coast. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to resume the recovery with an increase by 0.56% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey after the unexpected dip last week.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 0.94mbbl and distillates to draw by 0.37mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks showed a small build last week with an unexpected drop in implied demand, although total US stocks remain below normal and the US East Coast looks especially tight. Gasoline implied demand fell 7% on a weekly basis last week counter to the increasing trend in place since January. The four-week average implied demand fell about 100kbpd to reverse gains seen the previous week and back below 2023 levels. US retail gasoline demand declined by 0.7% in the week ending 13 April to 8.690mbpd according to GasBuddy.
• Distillates stocks also built last week driven by a drop in implied demand to fall further below the previous five-year range to the lowest since the week to Jan. 19 and despite a small increase in exports. Demand was last week 9.4% below the norm for the time of year.
• The API data released last night showed a crude build of 4.09mbbl with a draw of 0.169mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of 2.51mbbl and distillates stocks a draw by 0.43mbbl.