EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude and Product Draws Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by 1.07mbbls for the week ending May 3, according to a Reuters survey. Crude stocks last week built driven by a large drop in US exports combined with an unexpected decline in refinery runs in the week. Refinery utilization fell back to the lowest since mid March with a decline of 1% from the previous week as severe weather in the Midwest caused refiners to curb operations. Overall US refinery utilisation is this week expected to recover by 0.80% w/w according to a Reuters survey. US crude stocks are now at the highest since June as stocks built for the fifth week in the last six. Crude production has remained unchanged at 13.1mbpd since early March.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 1.26mbbl and distillates to draw by 1.10mbbl, according to a Reuters survey. Gasoline stocks last week showed a small build on the week with an increase in production. Both imports and exports also rose towards seasonal highs. Four week implied gasoline demand continues to disappoint with consumption breaking the typical trend of seasonal growth as the summer driving season nears. Implied gasoline demand has fallen for four straight weeks and hit its lowest level since 2013, except for the start of the 2020 lockdowns. U.S. retail gasoline demand edged up by 0.1% in the week ending May 4 to 8.719mb/d according to GasBuddy. Fuel stocks in the Midwest last week dropped to the lowest this year while US East Coast gasoline stocks remain low heading into the summer despite an increase last week.
• Distillates stocks last week drew with a drop in production and small recovery in implied demand. Despite the increase, the four week implied demand remains well below seasonal normal except for levels seen in 2020. Distillates demand was 8.3% below 2023 levels while US distillate stocks were 6.6% below the five year average.
• The API data released last night showed a crude build of 0.5mbbl with a build of 1.3mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of 1.5mbbl and distillates stocks a build of 1.7mbbl.