EIA US Stocks Preview: Another Crude Draw Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The day delayed EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 11:00 ET (16:00 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to show a draw of -3.41mbbls for the week ending 29 December according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude inventories last week showed a much larger than expected draw driven by a drop in imports and despite another unexpected dip in exports as crude production remained up at record levels. US refinery utilisation rose again last week up to 93.3% with the Midwest at the highest level since August 2017. Utilisation is expected to dip by -0.32% this week according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Total US gasoline and distillates stocks are expected to show small draws on the week with a Bloomberg survey suggesting a gasoline draw of -0.19mbpd and distillates a draw of -0.11mbpd. EIA data last week showed an increase in gasoline implied demand on the week to offset a small drop in exports. Four-week average implied demand was above the previous five-year average for the first time since July. US gasoline demand in the holiday week to Dec 30 however fell 12.0% from the prior week according to the latest GasBuddy data. US gasoline demand was modelled at 7.81mbpd. Arrivals of European gasoline into the US rose to the highest since September in the seven days to Dec 28 to 278kb/d and roughly in line with the 2023 average.
• Distillates stocks rose last week boosted by higher production and despite a rise in exports and implied demand. Four-week average demand was back up within the previous five-year range. Restrictions at the Panama Canal appear to have started a rebound in stockpiles and combined with higher demand in the Northeast have pulled more Gulf Coast supply via the Colonial Pipeline according to Argus. US Atlantic Coast distillate inventories averaged 28mbbl in the four-weeks to Dec 22, up 9% on the previous four-week average.
• The EIA adjustment factor data once again showed a large change by 1.07kb/d last week.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of -7.418mbbls with a build of +0.765mbbls at Cushing. Products showed large builds with gasoline inventories increasing +6.913bbls and distillates building by +6.686mbbls.