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EMISSIONS: Carbon Prices May Reach €70/t CO2e in 4Q

EMISSIONS
BulletPower BulletsEnergy BulletsCommodities

European carbon prices could rise to around €70/t CO2e in 4Q, though concerns about economic recovery and EUA demand may challenge this outlook, according to market participants, cited by Montel.

  • A tighter carbon market expected from 2026 may boost the Dec 24 EU ETS contract in Q4, EU carbon analysis manager at consultancy Veyt Ingvild Sorhus said.
  • Veyt forecasts the average EUA price at €67.00/t CO2e for 2024, with significant increases expected in the first half of next year, Sorhus added.
  • However, UK-based consultancy Redshaw Advisors maintains a positive long-term outlook but notes that EUAs are likely to encounter several short-term challenges due to a slow economic recovery, renewable output and further renewable additions.
  • But a cold winter and stronger macros data could add support, the consultancy added.
  • EUA DEC 24 down 3.2% at 63.43 EUR/MT
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European carbon prices could rise to around €70/t CO2e in 4Q, though concerns about economic recovery and EUA demand may challenge this outlook, according to market participants, cited by Montel.

  • A tighter carbon market expected from 2026 may boost the Dec 24 EU ETS contract in Q4, EU carbon analysis manager at consultancy Veyt Ingvild Sorhus said.
  • Veyt forecasts the average EUA price at €67.00/t CO2e for 2024, with significant increases expected in the first half of next year, Sorhus added.
  • However, UK-based consultancy Redshaw Advisors maintains a positive long-term outlook but notes that EUAs are likely to encounter several short-term challenges due to a slow economic recovery, renewable output and further renewable additions.
  • But a cold winter and stronger macros data could add support, the consultancy added.
  • EUA DEC 24 down 3.2% at 63.43 EUR/MT