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Empire and Philly See A Net Mfg Improvement After Lagging ISM

US DATA
  • Today's flash US PMIs for June across both manufacturing and services at 0945ET follow a collection of weak PMI releases across the main Eurozone readings along with the UK.
  • This will provide a useful update on services, whilst initial regional Fed manufacturing surveys have been mixed at a headline level but with some signs of improvement in ISM-equivalent terms.
  • The Philly Fed manufacturing index surprisingly fell to 1.3 (cons 5.0) in June from 4.5, for its lowest level since January.
  • Shipments slipped from -1.2 to -7.2 (lowest since Dec’23) whilst new orders improved but remained negative, rising from -7.9 to -2.2.
  • It’s in contrast to Monday’s beat for the volatile Empire survey as it increased to -6.0 (cons -10.0) from -15.6. It was the biggest monthly increase since Nov’23, to the least-negative reading since Feb’24.
  • While activity continues to contract, the survey provided signals that pronounced 2Q weakness may have represented a trough in activity in New York State for now.
  • However, converting to ISM-equivalent terms, Empire increased from 46.9 to 49.0 (highest since Nov’23) whilst the Philly Fed still increased from 46.4 to 47.0 despite the headline decline even if that only the highest since Apr’24.

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