End of Day Power Summary: Week-Aheads Lift August

The German and French August baseload power contracts remained up on the day as they were supported by the week-ahead products amid low German wind forecasts and high temperatures in Paris, to resist price falls in EU ETS, Coal and Gas.

• Germany Base Power Week-Ahead up 3.4% at 69 EUR/MWh
  
• France Base Power Week-Ahead up 5.52% at 52 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power AUG 24 up 6.6% at 50.5 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 2.1% at 71.15 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 2.1% at 64.92 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.7% at 31.95 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 down 0.6% at 108.05 USD/MT
• TTF front month is recovering earlier losses with an increase in Norwegian outages. However, it remains down on the day due to easing supply concerns and the gradual return of Freeport LNG.
• EU ETS Dec 24 remains red as falls in TTF are weighing, while the latest EU ETS CAP3 EU auction cleared at €64.37/ton CO2e from €64.96/ton CO2e in the previous auction according to EEX- possibly adding downward pressure.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecasts for Paris suggest max temperatures over 23-31 July at between 23.4-35.5C – with temperatures highest over 29-31 July - likely supporting cooling demand
• German wind is only forecasts at 2-15% load factors over 23-28 July, with wind on 25 July and 27-28 July the lowest.
• More capacity was allocated in the latest CBC auctions for delivery in August on the Joint Allocation Office (JAO) on the Germany-Belgium border compared to the previous month, with prices slightly edging down
• Belgium sharply decreased its CBC capacity in the direction of France in the latest CBC auctions for delivery in August on JAO.
• The latest CBC auction for delivery in August on JAO in the Dutch-German direction fell sharply compared to the previous auction, while prices in the German-Dutch direction rose.
• The EU has launched an investigation into Belgian state support given to extend the lifespan of its 1GW Doel 4 and 1GW Tihange 3 nuclear reactors by 10 years, citing that the package could be a break of EU state aid rules, it said.
• Galp anticipates Iberian power prices to recover in 2H24, while its solar deployment in the region has slowed amid licensing delays, it said.
• Poland's Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski is in discussions with Climate and Environment Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska and Industry Minister Marzena Czarnecka to keep power prices at an "acceptable level" in 2025, Domanski said, according to ISBnews.