Energy Complex Edges Higher

Germany July base load is edging higher today amid gains in European carbon allowances and gas prices. France July power is extending yesterday’s gains. French strikes are currently reducing nuclear output by around 1GW. Strikes at EdF are scheduled until Thursday evening.

• France Base Power JUL 24 up 1% at 47.5 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power JUL 24 up 0.3% at 75.75 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 1.3% at 71.22 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas JUL 24 up 0.3% at 35.45 EUR/MWh
• TTF is holding onto gains from yesterday supported by higher cooling demand expected next week adding to the market sensitivity over supply risks.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is edging slightly higher today, shrugging off losses in European gas prices. The next EUA EU CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
• German wind output is forecast at 3.07GWGW to 14.88GW during base load on 21-27 June. Solar PV output is forecast at 12.44GW to 27.93GW during peak load between 21 and 29 June according to SpotRenewables.
• Industrial action in France’s energy sector is scheduled for 20 June. EdF workers started strikes on Wednesday 09:00PM CET. Around 150MW of hydropower generation capacity is curtailed due to the strikes.
• Because of the strikes, output at the 1.335GW St Alban reactor has been reduced by 145MW until Thursday afternoon. Output has also been curtailed by 860MW at the 1.31GW Belleveille 1 reactor until this afternoon. Overnight, output at Flamanville 1, St Alban 1and Dampierre 2 had been reduced.
• French nuclear availability rebounded to 70% as of Thursday morning, up from 67% the day before, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• The unplanned outage at the 1.5GW Chooz 2 reactor has been extended by three days until 24 June.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a maximum of 49.1GW on Thursday and of 47.97GW on Friday according to Entso-E.
• The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures have been revised down on the day, with temperatures in line with the seasonal normal until 24 June, before rising above normal until 27 June, when temperatures fall back down. Maximum temperatures in Paris are forecast to reach around 28C on 25 June, revised down from 32C in yesterday’s forecast.
• Forecasts suggested wind output in France is picking up from the end of next week. Wind output is forecast at 2.42GW – 8.98GW during base load on 21-29 June. Solar PV output in France is forecast at 5.8GW to 8.08GW during peak load on 21-29 June according to SpotRenewables.