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Energy Exports Drive Surprise Goods Surplus

CANADA DATA
  • The Canadian goods balance was notably healthier than expected in June, printing a surplus of C$0.64bn (consensus for a deficit of C$2.0bn) after a downward revised deficit C$1.6bn in May.
  • The three-month average was still in deficit but it narrows from 0.5% GDP to just 0.2% GDP, with the monthly improvement driven by the energy balance.
  • Most recently, goods exports increased 5.5% M/M in June with energy products up 11.7% M/M after the recent completion of the TMX expansion.
  • Separately, the services deficit at 0.4% GDP continues to trend a little either side of 0.5% GDP.
  • The three-month goods & services deficit of ~0.6% GDP compares with historical averages closer to 1.7% GDP, with the relatively stronger external position driven by the goods balance.
  • As with the US, latest monthly volumes data are pointing to healthier signs of broader domestic demand even if the Canadian data are more volatile. Non-energy import volumes increased 12% Y/Y in June and or 5% Y/Y looking through a three-month average.

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