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Energy M/M PPI Rises In August

EUROZONE DATA

Eurozone August PPI printed in line with consensus, showing a first sequential monthly increase in producer prices since December 2022.

  • The M/M print was +0.6% (vs +0.6% cons; -0.5% prior). This was driven by energy prices (+2.5% M/M vs -0.9% prior), as expected given the rise in oil prices over summer.
  • Other major sub-components were either flat or negative on the month, with PPI ex-energy falling -0.2% M/M (vs -0.4% prior).
  • The Y/Y print was -11.5% (vs -11.6% cons; -7.6% prior), aided by energy base effects (-30.6% vs -24.2% prior) though all other major subcomponents also showed disinflation. PPI ex-energy was +1.0% Y/Y (vs +1.6% prior).
  • Eurozone Y/Y energy CPI disinflation has already lost momentum over the past months, with many analysts expecting an uptick in the coming months and into 2024. Monthly PPI figures today suggest that this lost momentum may continue, particularly as base effects begin to fall out of the comparison.
  • Elsewhere, Eurozone August retail sales showed continued demand weakness, printing weaker than expected at -2.1% Y/Y (vs -1.0% cons; -1.0% prior) and -1.2% M/M (vs. -0.5% cons; -0.1% prior).

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