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Energy Price Spike Choking German Industry

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY AUG PPI +7.9% M/M (FCST +2.4%); JUL +5.3% M/M

GERMANY AUG PPI +45.8% Y/Y (FCST +36.8%); JUL +37.2% Y/Y

  • The spike in energy prices (up 20.4% m/m alone) towards the end of August resulted in a record high month-on-month increase of +7.9% and annual increase of 45.8% in German PPI.
  • Supply chain disruptions due to the Ukraine war and Chinese lockdowns alongside weak growth outlooks continue to heavily hamper German industrial production, which contracted in July. This adds to the risk of a Q3 recession for the German economy.
  • Energy contributed to higher headline figures for sub-indexes intermediate goods (+17.5% y/y), capital goods (+7.8% y/y) and durable/nondurable consumer goods (+10.9% and +16.9% y/y). Energy and gas redistributors are paying over double compared to August 2021.
  • Metals, chemicals and fertilisers are also up 32.9% y/y, majorly impacted by the collapse in trade with Ukraine and Russia.


Source: Destatis

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