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Ericsson Outperforms Nokia; End of DoJ Monitoring Likely To See S&P Resume Outlook

TECHNOLOGY
  • Ericsson 28s (Ba1/BBB-[D]/BBB-) have outperformed Nokia 28s (Ba1/BBB-/BBB-) by close to 15bp since the pair reported in mid-April where Nokia reported a bigger revenue miss and a smaller operating beat compared to Ericsson. Ericsson equity is + 22% since reporting vs. Nokia +13.5%.
  • The news came this week that Ericsson had exited monitoring around corruption-related misconduct in Iraq; the governance issues around the case were the chief reason for a “Developing” outlook at S&P so a resumption of a Stable outlook now looks likely.
  • With a split HY rating from Moody’s (affirmed in February) we don’t think the resumption of a stable outlook at S&P will drive spreads though the grind tighter vs. Nokia may continue – we note FY adj-Op Income BBG consensus has moved 1.4% lower since reporting for Ericsson vs. 2.5% lower for Nokia. Ericsson 29s currently flat to Nokia 31s despite the shorter maturity.

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