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CREDIT UPDATE
  • It's been another step wider but more harsh today and not limited to normal high-beta names. A mix of sectors seeing double digit widening including Autos, Airlines, Retailers and some Financials. Tighteners were limited to Thames (-18-45bps) who is continuing a reversal in.
  • It should help us move past French-election linked wides set in June but unlike $IG we will remain firmly tighter YTD - at least for now. Expect to see some daily move records broken on today's close - unclear if it will be double digit.
  • We said early on Friday that stress in IG spreads did not show in equity baskets or HY spreads; that was short lived on the day and continues to be today; €IG equities -2.3% (SXXP -2.1%, SPX -2.1%) led again by Financials (-5%), Materials (-3.8%), Utilities (-3.6%), IT (-3.4%) and consumer cyclicals (-3.2%). Out of the 513 members in our IG basket only 14 ended in the green and out of those only >1% movers were OCI NV (+15.5%) on asset sale announcement, Kellanova (+13%) on potential bid from Mars and AIA (+2%). Similar story in HY with only 6/142 rising; that included Branicks (+4%), Ceconomy (+1.5%) and Wizz Air (+1%). As we mentioned earlier losses in equities were lead by Japanese names.
  • Movers in HY credit included Auto Parts name STPRAU26s (-3pts), FONFO 29s (-2.4pts), Benteler 28s (-2.2pts) and Kemone 28s (-2pts). Moves from larger issues included Forvia (-0.4-1.2pts), Air-France (unch to -1.2pts) and Avis (-1pt).
  • Belly bunds end +1.5bps a stunning reversal from the -12bp lows we were looking at. It's mostly come on the firmer than expected ISM services print of 51.4 (consensus 51, prev. 48.8). iTraxx has reversed with sentiment now only +2/+8bps. Swap spreads also heading for a mute -0.4bps close after spiking +2bps at midday.
  • To reiterate our economist view is, despite BLS saying no impact from Hurricane on Friday's July employment numbers they remain sceptical given 1) hours worked dipped, 2) those not able to work due to bad weather spiked and 3) temporary layoffs accounted for almost 3-quarters of the rise in unemployment on the month. Still they recognise it was a dovish/weak report.

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