EU Gas Demand Overview [PART 1.]: November Demand Rose Above 2022

European natural gas consumption has recovered slightly in recent weeks as the continent experienced its first cold spell, while lower European gas benchmark prices supported industrial gas use. The region continues to see significant demand destruction, especially in the power sector due to the renewables expansion and improved nuclear availability, particularly in France.

• ICIS estimated EU+GB natural gas demand in November rose 3% above 2022 levels, driven by an increase in residential/commercial and industrial demand, while demand for power generation fell short of last year’s levels. November industrial gas demand rose 9% above 2022 levels, and commercial/residential demand exceeded last year’s levels by 10%. Gas demand for power generation lagged 2022 levels by 19%. While overall demand exceeded last year's levels, consumption was still below the 2017-2021 average by 20%, with the largest reduction in gas demand for power generation by 28%. So far this year, EU gas demand stood 8% below 2022 levels and 17% below the five-year average.
• IEA analyst Greg Molnar said EU gas demand in November rose 2% above 2022 levels as colder temperatures supported gas demand for heating. November gas demand for heating exceeded 2022 levels by 10% while heating intensity remained comparable to last year’s levels, which indicates that some behavioral changes from last year are still in place. Power sector gas burn was down 20% on the year due to higher renewables output and improved nuclear availability. Overall consumption remained 25% below 2021 last month.
• ING THINK estimates showed gas demand stood 7% below 2022 levels and 16% below the 2017-2021 average in the January-October period.
• BNEF data showed EU gas demand stood 350mcm/d below the 2016-2020 average in the first three weeks of November, due to a mild start to the winter, while high renewables output and nuclear availability weighed on gas burn for the power sector.
• In Germany, gas demand averaged 2,976GWh/d in November, up by 16.3% y/y but below the 2018-2021 average of 3,483GWh. Most recently, German gas demand exceeded the 2018-21 average by 8.6% during calendar week 48 - 27 November until 3 December – as temperatures stood 4.1°C below the norm, Bnetza data showed.
• In contrast, Spanish gas demand fell by 6.9% compared with 2022 levels in November to 26.1TWh, driven by lower gas demand for power generation. Spanish gas demand for power generation fell by 36% year on year to 6.1TWh, largely due to higher renewables output, offsetting gains of 8% year on year from industrial and household demand that stood at almost 20TWh according to Enagas.