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EU Gas Market Still Faces Winter Risks: IEA

NATURAL GAS

Europe’s natural gas market still faces the risk of volatile prices this winter, while the situation has improved, the IEA said in its Global Gas Security Review.

  • “Major uncertainties remain ahead of the upcoming heating season. A cold winter, together with a full halt in Russia piped gas supplies to Europe early in the heating season, could easily renew market tensions,” the report said.
  • Russia’s piped gas deliveries to the European Union fell by over 75% (or 36bcm) in the first half of this year, the report stated.
  • If Europe freezes for a prolonged period and renewables don’t provide sufficient relief, gas may double from current winter price levels to €100/MWh, Morgan Stanley said earlier this month. At the other extreme, a mild, windy winter means prices could slump to about €15/MWh, the bank said.
  • In OECD Europe, natural gas demand fell by around 10%, or over 30bcm, in the first half of this year according to the IEA.
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