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EU LNG Imports Could Rise on Cold Weather

NATURAL GAS

European LNG sendout has averaged below levels seen in 2022 and 2023 down at 326mcm/d in the week to Jan 7 with enough supplies to meet muted demand in Europe. Demand could rise due to cooler weather this week although temperatures are forecast to edge slightly warmer back closer to normal towards the middle of the month.

  • LNG imports to Europe and Turkey fell 18% to an 11-week low of 2.9bcm in the first week of 2024 according to preliminary Kpler data via Montel. Supply is estimated to increase 18% to 3.4bcm this week.
  • December saw the fourth highest monthly LNG imports to Europe and Turkey on record at 15.8bcm taking the 2023 total to 166.6bcm and almost unchanged on the year.
  • LNG at sea for at least 20 days remains well above the previous five year range up at 3.298m metric tonnes yesterday according to Bloomberg.
  • TTF front month is falling down towards the low last week at just over 30€/MWh while the Feb 2024 contract spread to Summer 24 remains near parity. The Sum 24 – Win 24 spread is today holding around -4.4€/MWh while the Sum24-Sum25 spread is down at -1.0€/MWh.
    • TTF FEB 24 down -8.1% at 31.75€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -7.6% at 31.7€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -5.7% at 36.15€/MWh


Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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