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EU LNG Sendout Surges and Low Asian Prices Boosts Spot Interest

LNG

European LNG sendout rose to the highest since April on Jan 9 at 509mcm/d and has averaged 481mcm/d on Jan 8-10 as heating demand in Europe rises amid cold weather. TTF front month is holding near the recent range lows as higher LNG supply and a jump in storage withdrawals are enough to cover the increase in demand.

  • Net imports flows to Iberia increased to the highest since Dec 2022 on Jan 9 according to Bloomberg.
  • The February US netback to Asia has fallen as weak demand weighs on Asia LNG prices to narrow the premium over US supply to Europe. US LNG exports are more profitable to Asia for the balance of winter and near parity over the summer months. The US netback for February to Asia is at 6.93$/mmbtu compared to 6.28$/mmbtu to Europe according to BNEF.
  • Low Asian prices are prompting interest from buyers in India and Thailand for February while Chinese buyers have purchased 6-8 cargoes for end-January to early-March delivery at $9.60-$10.60/mmBtu.
  • Asian spot LNG may range $9.5/mmbtu -$11/mmbtu in the near term on rising temperatures and weak demand into China’s lunar new year according to JLC.
  • LNG at sea for at least 20 days remains well above the previous five year range up at 3.549m metric tonnes yesterday according to Bloomberg.
    • TTF FEB 24 down -0.6% at 30.75€/MWh
    • NBP FEB 24 down -0.6% at 76.65p/th
    • JKM Feb 24 down -0.9% at 10.88$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Feb 24 up 0$/mmbtu at 0.98$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas FEB 24 down -2.9% at 2.95$/mmbtu


Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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