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POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: German Feb Climbs, France Relatively Flat

POWER
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German front-month power is trading higher, supported by gains in TTF prices and EU carbon allowances. In contrast, French front-month power remains relatively flat amid  strong nuclear availability and a generation mix that is less sensitive to gas price fluctuations.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 0.1% at 38.65 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 0.2% at 93.49 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 2% at 104.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 2.4% at 80.18 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.4% at 46.89 EUR/MWh
  • TTF is trading up amid strong storage withdrawals and supply risks, particularly from sanctions on Russia. This is offsetting warmer temperatures in Northwest Europe and higher LNG imports.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances have flipped into positive territory from the early morning session to track similar movements in TTF, with a sharp rise in the clearing price of German EUA auctions lending some support.
  • The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared higher at €77.30/ton CO2e, compared with the previous auction at €70.63/ton CO2e on 10 January.
  • European automakers, led by Volkswagen, face potential costs in the €100mn’s as they may be forced to purchase carbon credits from Chinese electric vehicle rivals, like BYD, to meet stringent 2025 EU emission targets.
  • Major Poll Sees CDU-SPD Or CDU-Green Coalitions Possible, AfD Second: The first 'multilevel regression and post-stratification poll' (MRP) from YouGov of the federal election campaign shows the main opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on course to emerge as the largest party, with 222 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag.
  • Saipem has encountered delays in drilling for foundations for the 450MW Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind project in France, raising concerns that the commissioning, initially set for 2025, could be pushed back to 2026.
  • GoldenPeaks Capital has expanded its presence in the Polish solar market, acquiring 400MW of ready-to-build assets from December 2024-January 2025, as part of its strategy to exceed 1GW of solar in Poland by 2025.
  • Italy added a record 7.5GW of renewables in 2024, bringing its total to 50GW across solar and wind, with an additional 2.1GW of small and utility-scale storage capacity added.
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German front-month power is trading higher, supported by gains in TTF prices and EU carbon allowances. In contrast, French front-month power remains relatively flat amid  strong nuclear availability and a generation mix that is less sensitive to gas price fluctuations.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 0.1% at 38.65 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 0.2% at 93.49 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 2% at 104.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 2.4% at 80.18 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.4% at 46.89 EUR/MWh
  • TTF is trading up amid strong storage withdrawals and supply risks, particularly from sanctions on Russia. This is offsetting warmer temperatures in Northwest Europe and higher LNG imports.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances have flipped into positive territory from the early morning session to track similar movements in TTF, with a sharp rise in the clearing price of German EUA auctions lending some support.
  • The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared higher at €77.30/ton CO2e, compared with the previous auction at €70.63/ton CO2e on 10 January.
  • European automakers, led by Volkswagen, face potential costs in the €100mn’s as they may be forced to purchase carbon credits from Chinese electric vehicle rivals, like BYD, to meet stringent 2025 EU emission targets.
  • Major Poll Sees CDU-SPD Or CDU-Green Coalitions Possible, AfD Second: The first 'multilevel regression and post-stratification poll' (MRP) from YouGov of the federal election campaign shows the main opposition centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on course to emerge as the largest party, with 222 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag.
  • Saipem has encountered delays in drilling for foundations for the 450MW Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind project in France, raising concerns that the commissioning, initially set for 2025, could be pushed back to 2026.
  • GoldenPeaks Capital has expanded its presence in the Polish solar market, acquiring 400MW of ready-to-build assets from December 2024-January 2025, as part of its strategy to exceed 1GW of solar in Poland by 2025.
  • Italy added a record 7.5GW of renewables in 2024, bringing its total to 50GW across solar and wind, with an additional 2.1GW of small and utility-scale storage capacity added.