MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

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CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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EUA Deficit Share from Industry, Power to Be Aligned by 2030

EMISSIONS

The EU’s industrial sector’s share of demand for a growing deficit of carbon allowances is expected to be in line with the power sector’s by 2030, as the power sector’s share of the total deficit is forecast to fall to 39% by 2030, consultancy ClearBlue told Montel.

  • For 2024, the power sector’s share of the total deficit is at 74%, Egis Breshani, EU market analysis manager at ClearBlue said.
  • The share of the industrial sector’s demand relative to the deficit is expected to increase to 38% by 2030, up from 11% in 2024.
  • This is because certain sectors are losing around half of the free allowances by the end of the decade, after the introduction of the CBAM.
  • The share of the aviation and shipping industry is expected to rise to 24% by 2030, up from 15% in 2024.
  • Aviation and shipping’s share should rise from 15% to 24%.
  • The EU ETS is expected to be at a deficit of up to 300mn tons by 2027, compared with the current surplus of around 59mn tons, Breshani said.
  • The annual EUA deficits are likely to recede again from 2028 and fall to 115m tonnes by 2030, she added.
  • The expected deficit in the coming years is likely to support EUA prices. EU ETS Dec 2027 closed yesterday at €77.55/ton CO2e.
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