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EUA Prices to Receive Support from Power Sector in July

EMISSIONS

EUA prices are likely to be supported by increased fossil-fuel generation in July, amid higher demand for cooling and seasonally lower nuclear, wind and hydropower output, despite anticipated higher solar PV output according to BNEF.

  • Power demand is forecast to rise by 5% on the month in July, which is expected to lift power emissions by 14% on the month.
  • Total EU emissions from the power sector rose by 5% in June month on month, while power sector emissions in the first six months of this year declined by 15% on the year.
  • The average cover ratio in June EUA auctions was at 1.63, down by 2% on the month and 18% on the year.
  • Front-year EUA volumes increased by 6% on the month in June and by 29.6% on the year to average 35.4mn.
  • In June, open interest for the EUA June futures rose to a new record of around 70mn allowances, more than double on the year, largely due to the shift in the compliance deadline to 30 September, from 30 April previously.
  • Open interest in the options market increased for call options at strike prices of €80/t, €90/t and €100/t and decreased for most put options compared with May.
  • In terms of trading volumes in the options market, volumes for call options rose last month with aggregated option volume on call and put options increasing by 57% and 12%, respectively, to 22.9mn and 33.2mn allowances.

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