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EUR Buoyed by Hawkish ECB, Sliding Energy Prices

FOREX
  • The single currency trades well early Monday, rallying alongside broadly hawkish tones from a number of ECB members both over the weekend as well as early Monday. Bundesbank chief Nagel flagged a persistent tightening bias at the ECB, stating that more clear ECB steps are needed if inflation lingers. Other speakers including de Guindos have suggested that another 75bps move is possible depending on data outcomes between now and the October meeting.
  • Elsewhere, sentiment has been buoyed by sliding energy prices, which hashelping lift the e-mini S&P further off last week's lows - making for a 5% rally off Wednesday's 3900.00 on the Dec contract. This has further supported the EUR, with Europe's benchmark Nat Gas contract off another 6% today alone, meaning prices have almost halved off the late-August peak. The moves follow reports of considerable progress made by the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine over the past 72 hours - pressing Russian forces back toward the border.
  • SEK performs particularly well amid local demand following the domestric elections result - leaving a centre-right coalition the most likely outcome.
  • The greenback and JPY are the weakest performers so far Monday, with the risk-on backdrop and resumption of JPY weakness the drivers at the bottom-end of the G10 table.
  • There are no tier 1 data releases due Monday, leaving focus on further ECB speak: ECB's Schnabel is due at 1300BST/0800ET. The Fed remain in their pre-rate decision media blackout period.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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