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NBP Gatnar Favors Symbolic 15bps Hike


Test the session high


With EUR/USD circling, but not yet breaking the 1.20 handle, markets remain highly cognizant of a fall through that level, resulting in front-end risk reversals contracts hitting new cycle lows today.

  • Reflecting this, notional crossing in EUR/USD puts counters that of calls in what's been a higher volume session in the pair relative to USD/JPY, USD/CNY and other majors.
  • 1.20 is clearly seen as a key level going forward, with over $2.5bln in option strikes rolling off at that mark over the next week.
  • The caution over spot falling through the 1.20 handle is evident in the interest in 1.1800 and 1.1940 put strikes throughout the European morning, although news confirming Draghi's attempts to form an Italian government may have slowed the demand for downside protection.

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