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EUR/JPY Cracks Key Support, Opens Next Leg Lower

FOREX
  • JPY remains a market highlight, as the currency is the strongest performer in G10 for another session - helping tip AUD/JPY over 5% off the cycle high posted pre-intervention. Critically, EUR/JPY has also broken below major psychological support at the Y170.00 mark and looks to secure a close below the 50-dma - hard-worn support that successfully contained weakness on several occasions over the past few months. Clustered support at 167.53-75 could be key on the next downleg.
  • Global growth dynamics remain key, with concerns around the Chinese economy weighing heavily on industrial metals and energy products through the Tuesday session, dragging growth-, risk- and commodity-tied currencies lower in the process. As a result, NOK, AUD and NZD traded poorly into the close.
  • Focus Wednesday turns to pivotal prelim PMI data from the Eurozone, UK and US. The UK numbers could take particular focus given it's the last look at economic data ahead of the August Bank of England decision on Thursday next week - for which markets are priced on a knife edge, split between unchanged, and a first 25bps rate cut of the cycle.
  • Outside of the data, the Bank of Canada decision is also due. Markets are speculating over the potential for a back-to-back rate cut, however some signs of resilience in certain inflation metrics could contain the BoC at this stage.

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