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EUR Market Wrap

CREDIT PRE-MARKET


  • 2y/10y bunds ended +1.3bp/-2.2bp with little in the way of meaningful news flow. Our DM team noted that OIS contracts price ~90bps of cuts priced through 2024 ahead of Thursday’s meeting where analysts see limited scope for the core inflation profile to be revised down.
  • Main/XO ended -1bp/-5.3bp bringing YTD moves to -4.5bp/-13.7bp and XO to a 2-handle at 297bps. €IG/€HY cash ended flat/-1.8bp with the short-end underperforming and broad-based performance across sectors.
  • SXXP ended flat with Basic Resources, Real Estate, Retail and T&L all down by 1% or over and Tech and Healthcare outperforming at +0.6-0.7%. Notable movers include Embracer Group (-10% on the sale of their Saber subsidiary) and Grifols (-10% as flagged).
  • China NPC headlines have broadly been in line with market expectations. Accordingly, market impact has been limited. China equities recovered from earlier lows, but HK markets remain under pressure, weighed by the tech sector. A fresh chip ban by the US Commerce Department is weighing on sentiment. Stoxx 50 futures -0.3% ahead of the open.
  • Up today we have:


    GMT/Local Impact Country Event
    0745/0845 * FR Industrial Production
    0900/1000 *** IT GDP (f)
    1000/1100 ** EU PPI
    1000/1000 ** UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
    1355/0855 ** US Redbook Retail Sales Index
    1500/1000 *** US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
    1500/1000 ** US Factory New Orders
    1630/1130 * US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
    1700/1200 US Fed Governor Michael Barr
    2030/1530 US Fed Governor Michael Barr



    Final Type Issuer Ticker Spread Against Launch Spread Avg. Tightening From IPT Avg. Launch Spread (MS) BBG NIC Amount (bn) Total Cover
    Banks (Sr Bail-In) BANCO DE SABADELL SA SABSM 4 1/4 09/13/30 MS 160 40.0bp 160.0bp 9.4bp 0.5 7.0x
    Banks (Sr Pref) SPAREBANK 1 SR BANK ASA SRBANK 3 5/8 03/12/29 MS 90 30.0bp 90.0bp N/A 0.5 2.0x
    Banks (Sr Unsec) NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA NACN Float 03/06/26 FRN 45 20.0bp N/A N/A 1 1.9x
    Banks (T2) BELFIUS BANK SA/NV CCBGBB 4 7/8 06/11/35 MS 220 35.0bp 220.0bp N/A 0.5 4.2x
    Covered (Banking) CREDIT AGRICOLE ITALIA CARPP 3 1/2 03/11/36 MS 85 5.0bp 85.0bp -2.5bp 1 4.6x
    Covered (Banking) TORONTO-DOMINION BANK TD 3.191 02/16/29 MS 43 8.0bp 43.0bp -7.6bp 2.5 2.0x
    Covered (Banking) TORONTO-DOMINION BANK TD 3.247 02/16/34 MS 56 7.0bp 56.0bp N/A 1 1.9x
    Covered (Banking) TORONTO-DOMINION BANK TD Float 02/16/27 FRN 35 N/A N/A N/A 2 N/A
    Food & Bev KONINKIJKE AHOLD DLHAIZE ADNA 3 3/8 03/11/31 MS 78 37.0bp 78.0bp N/A 0.5 4.2x
    Food & Bev KONINKIJKE AHOLD DLHAIZE ADNA 3 7/8 03/11/36 MS 120 27.5bp 120.0bp N/A 0.7 3.0x
    Food & Bev KONINKIJKE AHOLD DLHAIZE ADNA Float 03/11/26 FRN 30 37.5bp N/A N/A 0.4 N/A
    Travel & Leisure ACCOR SA ACFP 3 7/8 03/11/31 MS 125 37.5bp 125.0bp N/A 0.6 4.2x
    Total Corporates 25.9bp 108.6bp -0.2bp 11.2 2.4x

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