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  • 2y/10y bunds closed -4bp/+1bp – yields were little changed in the afternoon with our DM flagging very light spillover from dovish-leaning BoC decision into ECB cutting expectations. Given the expected “bumpiness” in core inflation through the remainder of this year, the scope for material further dovish repricing should be limited, absent a notable deterioration in growth prospects.
  • Main/XO ended +1bp/+5bp at 54.4bp/298bp while €IG/€HY was flat/+3bp with short-dated spreads underperforming by under 1bp and Energy, Fins and Utils marginally in he red. €IG remains closed though £IG was open with Severn Trent’s (SVTLN Baa2/BBB/BBB) GBP 350mn 14yr tightening just 15-20bp to price with a NIC of ~19bp after sector peer Severn Trent was downgraded while books were open.
  • SXXP ended -0.6% with Tech and Consumer P&S over 2% lower while SPX was -2.3%. Notable €IG movers included SGS SA +11%, Nidec +6%, AT&T +5%, Deutsche Bank -9%, Fortive -8%, Dell -8%, Otis Worldwide -7&, Eaton Corp -7%, Stora Enso -7%
  • SX5E futures are -0.6% while SPX futures are +0.2%. UST futures have edged slightly higher throughout the night with the front-end out-performing again which has been helped by multiple block steepener trades going through. Safe haven gains again dominate the G10 FX space.
  • Later US Q2 GDP, jobless claims, June durable orders and German July Ifo survey print. Also ECB President Lagarde speaks.

Date

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

25/07/2024

0600/0800

**

SE

PPI

25/07/2024

0645/0845

**

FR

Manufacturing Sentiment

25/07/2024

0800/1000

**

EU

M3

25/07/2024

0800/1000

***

DE

IFO Business Climate Index

25/07/2024

1000/1100

**

UK

CBI Industrial Trends

25/07/2024

-

EU

ECB's Cipollone at Rio de Janeiro G20 Fin min/central bank meeting

25/07/2024

1230/0830

***

US

Jobless Claims

25/07/2024

1230/0830

**

US

WASDE Weekly Import/Export

25/07/2024

1230/0830

***

US

GDP

25/07/2024

1230/0830

*

CA

Payroll employment

25/07/2024

1230/0830

**

US

Durable Goods New Orders

25/07/2024

1230/0830

**

US

Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories

25/07/2024

1300/1500

**

BE

BNB Business Sentiment

25/07/2024

1430/1030

**

US

Natural Gas Stocks

25/07/2024

1500/1100

**

US

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

25/07/2024

1500/1700

EU

ECB's Lagarde attends Paris Summit

25/07/2024

1530/1130

*

US

US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result

25/07/2024

1530/1130

**

US

US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result

25/07/2024

1700/1300

**

US

US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note

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