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  • 2y/10y bunds closed -4bp/-1bp – our DM team flagged the move followed USTs higher on the US PCE report, with the readings still consistent with disinflation progress despite an upward revision in May while there was no material change in ECB cut pricing the back of comments from Schnabel that the ECB is closely watching sticky services prices. WoW move of -17bp/-6bp. Fed preview: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65477/FedPrevJul2024.pdf.
  • Main/XO ended -0.8bp/-5bp at 54.2bp/295bp to give a WoW move of flat/-2bp while €IG/€HY was flat/+1bp for a weekly move of flat/+8bp with Cons Cyc and Energy spreads underperforming slightly at 1-2bp wider.
  • SXXP was +0.8% with real estate the only sector in the red for a WoW move of +0.5% (vs. -0.8% for SPX). Notable WoW €IG movers included Mohawk Ind +25%, 3M Co +22%, Bristol-Myers Squibb +18%, SGS SA +16%, Sartorius +15%, Universal Music -24%, Ford -20%, Nissan -14%, Stellantis -13%, UPS -11%.
  • SX5E and SPX futures are +-0.5%. UST futures are trading near the best levels for the session, the curve has seen a slight bull-flattening move. The dollar has been weaker, but follow through has been limited. There are June UK lending/M4 data and the July US Dallas Fed index later but little else.

Date

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

29/07/2024

0600/0800

***

SE

GDP

29/07/2024

0600/0800

**

SE

Retail Sales

29/07/2024

0830/0930

**

UK

BOE M4

29/07/2024

0830/0930

**

UK

BOE Lending to Individuals

29/07/2024

1000/1100

**

UK

CBI Distributive Trades

29/07/2024

1430/1030

**

US

Dallas Fed manufacturing survey

29/07/2024

1530/1130

*

US

US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill

29/07/2024

1530/1130

*

US

US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill

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