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EUR Market Wrap

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  • 2y/10y bunds closed -4bp/-2bp after German inflation was above-expected and appeared to pose some slight upside risks to consensus for today’s Euro-wide print despite Spain's HICP earlier coming in soft, while German Q2 GDP disappointed compared to solid Spanish/French growth. Yields fell to session lows in early afternoon, with core FI weakening only modestly on higher-than-expected US jobs openings data.
  • Main/XO ended +0.7bp/+1bp at 55.7bp/299bp (+2.2bp/+6bp WoW) while €IG/€HY was +0.6bp/+1bp (+1.2bp/+12bp WoW) with IG Tech underperforming at +1.1bp. Primary was kept open by Lloyds Banking’s EUR 1bn 6.25NC5.25 Green that tightened 30bp to price at MS+95bps with a 5bp NIC and a cover of 2.2x.
  • SXXP ended +0.4% with Basic Resources holding onto earlier losses at -1.2% while SPX was -0.5%. Notable €IG movers included Aliaxis +7%, Stan Chart +6%, Merck -10%, Ecolab -8%, Corning -7%, AGCO Corp -6%.
  • Later, not only is there the Fed decision later but also US Q2 employment cost index, July ADP employment and June home sales. There are also euro area preliminary July CPI, German July unemployment and June retail sales.

Date

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

31/07/2024

0600/1400

**

CN

MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI)

31/07/2024

0600/0800

**

DE

Import/Export Prices

31/07/2024

0645/0845

***

FR

HICP (p)

31/07/2024

0645/0845

**

FR

PPI

31/07/2024

0755/0955

**

DE

Unemployment

31/07/2024

0900/1100

***

EU

HICP (p)

31/07/2024

0900/1100

***

IT

HICP (p)

31/07/2024

1000/1200

**

IT

PPI

31/07/2024

1100/0700

**

US

MBA Weekly Applications Index

31/07/2024

1215/0815

***

US

ADP Employment Report

31/07/2024

1230/0830

***

US

Employment Cost Index

31/07/2024

1230/0830

***

CA

Gross Domestic Product by Industry

31/07/2024

1230/0830

***

US

Treasury Quarterly Refunding

31/07/2024

1345/0945

***

US

MNI Chicago PMI

31/07/2024

1400/1000

**

US

NAR Pending Home Sales

31/07/2024

1430/1030

**

US

DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks

31/07/2024

1800/1400

***

US

FOMC Statement

01/08/2024

2300/0900

**

AU

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)

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