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EUR Market Wrap

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  • Bunds closed 1-3bp tighter, extending their yield drop to a 7th consecutive session – DM team flagged a firmer open on the US debate and soft UK activity data. The key event was US CPI, the core component of which came in well above expectations which all but priced out a 50bp cut though the initial move higher in yields was pared as the broader impact of relatively tighter monetary policy won out.
  • Main/XO ended +1bp/+3bp at 58.2bp/310bp while €IG was +4bp (Corps +4.5bp, Fins +3.4bp) and €HY was +11bp. All IG sectors were at least ~3bp wider with Cycs +7bp (Autos specifically were +8.6bp) and now into wider YTD territory at +4.8bp vs. -4.4bp for Corps. $IG was -0.6bp (Corps -0.8bp, Fins -0.1bp) and $HY was flat
  • SXXP ended flat while SPX was +1.1%. €IG movers included 17%, Albemarle +14%, Rentokil -20%, Neste -10%.
  • SX5E/SPX futures are +1.3%/+0.2%. DM team has flagged that strong overnight equity gains, led by tech sensitive markets, has aided broader risk appetite. UST futures edged slightly lower in the first half of the session, with the front-end slightly underperforming, mirroring moves made post US CPI overnight.
  • Later US August PPI, budget and jobless claims print. Core PPI is expected to hold steady at 2.4% y/y. The ECB announces its decision today, which will be accompanied by updated staff forecasts and a press conference. It is expected to cut rates 25bp.

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  • Bunds closed 1-3bp tighter, extending their yield drop to a 7th consecutive session – DM team flagged a firmer open on the US debate and soft UK activity data. The key event was US CPI, the core component of which came in well above expectations which all but priced out a 50bp cut though the initial move higher in yields was pared as the broader impact of relatively tighter monetary policy won out.
  • Main/XO ended +1bp/+3bp at 58.2bp/310bp while €IG was +4bp (Corps +4.5bp, Fins +3.4bp) and €HY was +11bp. All IG sectors were at least ~3bp wider with Cycs +7bp (Autos specifically were +8.6bp) and now into wider YTD territory at +4.8bp vs. -4.4bp for Corps. $IG was -0.6bp (Corps -0.8bp, Fins -0.1bp) and $HY was flat
  • SXXP ended flat while SPX was +1.1%. €IG movers included 17%, Albemarle +14%, Rentokil -20%, Neste -10%.
  • SX5E/SPX futures are +1.3%/+0.2%. DM team has flagged that strong overnight equity gains, led by tech sensitive markets, has aided broader risk appetite. UST futures edged slightly lower in the first half of the session, with the front-end slightly underperforming, mirroring moves made post US CPI overnight.
  • Later US August PPI, budget and jobless claims print. Core PPI is expected to hold steady at 2.4% y/y. The ECB announces its decision today, which will be accompanied by updated staff forecasts and a press conference. It is expected to cut rates 25bp.