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EUR/PLN Touches New Weekly Low on Higher CPI

POLAND
  • September prelim CPI data came in ahead of expectations, with the Y/Y figure lurching higher to touch 5.8% - another new high and the fastest rate of inflation since 2001. The inflation data comes ahead of next week's NBP rate decision, at which the bank are still expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 0.10%. Markets may look through next week's decision in favour of November's - at which the NBP release fresh econ forecasts.
  • Local analysts expect near-term price pressures to persist, with MBank reiterating their call that the rise in prices is not over, and will top out at above 6%.
  • PKO Bank are to begin out-of-court settlements to mortgage holders from next week, with offers rolled out to FX loan clients who have sued the bank. Reports follow PAP writing earlier in September that there was little appetite among loan-holders to accept these offers, which could trim take up.
  • S&P are to review the Polish credit rating after the close Friday. They currently rate Poland at A-. Elsewhere, the Polish central bank hold an economic conference, so headlines can be expected throughout the session.
  • PLN already trades firmer on the inflation release, with EUR/PLN pushing to fresh weekly lows of 4.5834. Further local strength could open support down at the 50-dma of 4.5703 - a slip through here would be bullish PLN.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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