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EUR Rates See Limited Reaction To Powell

STIR

EUR rates saw little net reaction to prepared remarks from Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. ECB-dated OIS thus continue to price 40bps of further rate cuts through the remainder of ’24.

  • Today’s ECB speakers (Panetta, Nagel and Centeno) were similarly not market moving.
  • Centeno echoed remarks made to the MNI Policy team last week, highlighting the role of producer prices and underlying economic weakness as rationale for his dovish stance.
  • Tomorrow’s regional calendar is once again limited, though spillovers from the RBNZ decision overnight and BoE speakers will garner some attention.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jul-243.6620.0
Sep-243.475-18.7
Oct-243.417-24.6
Dec-243.264-39.9
Jan-253.196-46.6
Mar-253.060-60.2
Apr-252.995-66.7
Jun-252.873-78.9
Source: MNI/Bloomberg.

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