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EUR Under Pressure Post Parliamentary Elections, USD Supported Elsewhere

FOREX

The early G10 FX trends have been skewed towards USD gains. Most prominent has been EUR/USD weakness, which comes post Sunday's EU parliamentary results.

  • EUR/USD got to lows of 1.0765, but sits slightly higher now, last around 1.0775, still off around 0.25%. We are below May 30 lows (1.0788), which was a key short-term support point. A break sub 1.0765 could see May 9 lows at 1.0724 targeted.
  • The elections showed a swing to the right, while French President Macron called a snap legislative election in the aftermath of the results. Fresh political uncertainty is weighing on EU assets more broadly. EU Stoxx futures fell as much as 0.5%, while French and German government bond futures are weaker as well.
  • USD/JPY is edging back up towards 157.00 but has been unable to breach the figure level (we were last just under 156.90). US yields are biased higher in the first part of trade. We have had Q1 GDP revisions in Japan, which didn't show much difference to the original print.
  • AUD/USD is slightly weaker, last near 0.6580, while NZD/USD is back close to 0.6100.
  • Note Australian markets are closed today, while China and Hong Kong markets are also out, potentially limiting liquidity. With Japan's major data releases out of the way there is little in the way of further risk events.

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