EUR/USD has edged lower in early........>

EURO-DOLLAR: EUR/USD has edged lower in early dealing, trading 15 pips worse off

at $1.1595. Questions still surround the longevity of the German gov't, although

reports suggest that interior minister (and leader of Merkel's coalition

partner) Horst Seehofer has given Merkel two more weeks to come up with a

solution for matters surrounding migration.

- MNI analysis shows that new EUR/USD shorts are in for a rough ride. The Fed

rate trajectory is almost fully baked-in, making USD less sensitive to hawkish

turns. Options markets and positioning point to limited EUR/USD downside.

Nonetheless, positioning & options markets were already structurally short EUR

pre-ECB, with the latter unwilling to gear for further downside, making any

further move lower in spot tough going.

- Focus this week will fall on addresses from ECB Pres Mario Draghi (including

an address on Monday), as well as comments from Weidmann, Coeure, Praet,

Lautenschlager, Villeroy, Lane, Knot & Reinesch throughout the week, and flash

EZ PMI data due Friday. Initial support is seen at $1.1541 (Low June 15), while

resistance is seen at $1.1627 (High June 15).