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EUR/USD Recovery Efforts Struggle. Needs Break of $1.1840-60 to Boost Upside Hopes

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Positive COVID vaccine news Monday provided the added risk lift to take rate through $1.1900, posting a high of $1.1920 before momentum faded.
  • A mix of profit taking and reaction to move higher in UST yields acted to press rate down to $1.1796 into the 1600GMT fix(also moved it back below $1.1900 where large expiring EUR calls had strikes).
  • Recovery in NY was capped at $1.1836, closing at $1.1813.
  • USD traded with a weaker tone in Asia, allowed EUR/USD to extend recovery slightly to $1.1838 but failed to garner any major upside momentum. Corrective easing met support at $1.1820.
  • Germany ZEW at 1000GMT, expected to show a move lower due to second COVID wave effects. ECB Knot speaks at 1400GMT.
  • Fed Kaplan, Rosengren, Bostic, Quarles, Brainard appear through the afternoon.
  • Support $1.1820, $1.1800/1.1795 ahead of $1.1775/70. Resistance $1.1838, $1.1850, $1.1873-91(61.8%-76.4% $1.1920-1.1796).
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD retraced yesterday, however, this is likely a correction with the pair maintaining a bullish tone following last week's gains, and most recently, the breach of key resistance at 1.1881, Oct 21 high. Break here paves the way for a climb towards 1.2011, Sep 1 high. Today's bull trigger is 1.1920, yesterday's high. Key support has been defined at 1.1603.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com

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