November 15, 2023 11:43 GMT
EURHUF Close to Pre-US CPI Levels; Forint Weakest Currency in EMEA
EURHUF extended today’s gains, falling just shy of pre-US CPI levels at 377.30. The forint is the weakest performer in the EMEA region despite EURUSD off its lowest levels of the day and major equity benchmarks continuing to make modest gains following Tuesday’s rally.
- Nevertheless, EURHUF remains within relatively close proximity to yesterday’s multi-month lows and some way off initial resistance at 380.47 – the 20-day EMA, highlighting the technical bearish theme in play.
- Implied vols capturing the turn of the year and early '24 continue to trade at a discount to realised, as recent NBH comms point to a more predictable approach for NBH policy. The 3m implied vol contract this week touched 8.7 points, the lowest since early July. The NBH Monetary Policy Department head Zsolt Kuti today largely reiterated the view that the bank should avoid a “rushed” interest rate cutting cycle as the central bank is only halfway through its job of reining in inflation, which remains “unacceptably high.”