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EURHUF Lacks Directionality Amid More Stable Risk Backdrop

HUF
  • EURHUF is little changed on the day, reflecting the lacklustre price action and limited volumes noted across G10 FX. Equities remain firm while US yields have dipped lower in recent trade. Though EURHUF remains contained within Friday’s ranges with forint performance in-line with that of its CE3 peers (PLNHUF: -0.03%; CZKHUF: -0.03%), from a technical standpoint, the break of the 50-day EMA last week signals scope for a sustained move higher. Further strength would encounter key resistance and the bull trigger at 385.77, the Dec 18 high. On the downside, a break below 377.11, the Jan 8 low, would instead reinstate a bearish theme.
  • Comments from Prime Minister Orban last Friday, who urged the central bank to lower interest rates to spur economic growth, resulted in EURHUF printing a high of 383.67 – a level close to the YTD highs. HUF had already been facing headwinds from rising geopolitical tensions and the general risk-off tone across global markets, while Deputy Governor Virag strongly hinted that the pace of monetary policy easing will be increased.
  • Indeed, sell-side consensus has begun to shift toward a 100bp move at next week’s meeting, though Finance Minister Varga has warned of complacency with regard to the fight against inflation.
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