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EURHUF Trades Close to This Week’s Lows Ahead of Friday’s CPI Data

HUF
EURHUF has pierced Monday’s lows in recent trade, recording a fresh multi-month low in the process, and last deals around 378.00. While EURHUF is just marginally lower on the day at typing, the forint has been resilient to the weaker-than-expected retail sales data from earlier in the morning – data which signals the continual drag of domestic consumption on the economy.
  • At typing, price is below 378.24, the Aug 30 low. A more sustained break of this level would signal scope for a move lower toward 376.78, the Jul 25 low, and 373.98, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 12 - Aug 3 bull leg, further out.
  • CPI data on Friday is the next key risk event. A near 2ppt drop in the headline figure is expected (Est: +10.4% y/y; Prior: +12.2%) which could facilitate the continuation of fast-paced easing from the NBH after the central bank surprised markets in October with an above-consensus 75bp base rate cut.
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